Importance of Recruiting Rankings by Position.

Now that the recruiting season is over and most Cal fans are waxing poetic (along with some Texas fans) about how great these 17-18 year olds will be, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at recruiting rankings as a potential measurement for future success.

For the purposes of this entry, I’m going to use the All-Pac 10 players (1st and 2nd teams) for the years 2002-2009 as the standard. To measure how accurately these players were identified as stars, I’m going to use their individual Rivals recruiting rankings.

Now I’m well aware of the arguments that more all league players are three stars than four and five because of the fact that there are many more three stars than four and five, that is not the purpose of this exercise. My premise here is that recruiting rankings are more accurate and important for some positions as opposed to others. More specifically I believe that it is much harder to judge the potential of a high school offensive lineman, than a running back or wide receiver.

First the theory without statistics. Most highly rated offensive linemen are much bigger and stronger than the high school defensive linemen that they face, sometimes by quite a large amount. A 6′4” 300lb lineman facing off against a group of sub 6′ 200+ lb defensive linemen simply needs to lean on them a bit. When that same lineman comes to college and faces linemen more in the 280lb range who are often faster and stronger, it’s a whole different story. Additionally, some good linemen who are maybe not fully developed can reach and surpass those behemoths with maturity and work. Ted Miller outlined this exact occurrence recently in an email response on his blog:

From Ted Miller’s ESPN Blog.

“Second, he may turn out to be a finished product who’s already physically peaked. Often guys like this become solid but never dominant college players and they fall short of the NFL. You see this with a lot of with linemen who arrive as 6-foot-6, 310-pound freshmen already bench pressing over 400 pounds. By their senior years, they are… 6-foot-6, 315-pound seniors bench pressing over 450 pounds. And their feet never really got any quicker.

Meanwhile, there are those baby-faced guys who are 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds as high school seniors for whom college operates as a phone booth did for Superman.”

I would also add that for offensive linemen the mentality from high school to college changes quite a bit. It takes a lot more mental toughness to bump heads day after day with someone just and big and strong as you are after spending most of your life being the biggest baddest guy on the block. That mentality needs to exist both on the field in terms of tenacity and technique, and in weight room dedication if you are to be the best. That’s where those baby-faced guys turn into Superman.

Of course, running backs and wide receivers also have advantages over high school defensive players in terms of speed and size, however, a 4.5 is just as fast in college as in high school. Even if you have a defensive player chasing you running a 4.6 instead of a 5.0, if you have a step you’re gone. Speed makes up for a lot at the skill positions.

So that’s the theory, can I prove it (or at least provide some substantiation) with data? Let’s see.

2002-2009 All-Pac 10 Teams	Rivals Average Stars	Rivals Average Rating
Running Backs/Wide Receivers	3.74	5.82
Offensive Linemen	3.24	5.59

That’s ½ star difference. Moreover, there were two players who were three time All-Pac 10 over that five year period, both Offensive Linemen. They were, Max Unger (Oregon) and our own Alex Mack, both two star recruits out of high school. This data would seem to validate the theory that recruiting rankings are more important for RB/WRs than for OL, but I wanted to add one more bit of data to see if the theory still held. What if there were significantly more 4 star or better RB/WRs than OL therefore skewing the data for higher ratings for RB/WRs? Well over the same 5 year period, there were 46 Pac 10 RB/WRs rated 4 stars or higher and 38 Pac 10 OL rated 4 star or higher. Pretty close, and given the fact that there were more All Pac 10 O-Lineman that weren’t rated than RB/WRs I would hazard a guess that those “unrated” linemen would probably be rated below 3 stars.

So the data would seem to support the assertion that it’s harder to predict success on the offensive line as opposed to in the offensive backfield. Why is that even interesting? I think it helps judges recruiting classes more accurately. If you don’t have many 4 star or 5 star recruits that are offensive linemen, it’s much less of a concern than if you lack highly rated recruits at the skill position. Of course the reverse is also true, a bunch of highly rated “hogs” doesn’t mean you can expect a top flight offensive line without the proper development.

Just for kicks, here are rankings for the other positions (excluding QB).

2002-2009 All Pac 10 Teams	Rivals Average Stars	Rivals Average Rating
Defensive Linemen	3.33	5.73
Linebackers	3.51	5.84
Defensive Backs	3.06	5.56

What’s interesting here is the high ratings for Linebackers and the low ratings for Defensive Backs. I have another theory here. I think many of the things that make the transition from high school to college easier for RB/WRs (speed) also translate to the linebacking core. As for Defensive Backs, I believe this is reflective of two things. One, many college defensive backs come into college as lower rated running backs and wide receivers and are moved to the other side of the ball. Two, it’s harder to really stand out as a defensive back in high school because you rarely play against top flight wide-outs and when you do, it’s pretty easy for them to avoid you.

So that’s the data, take if for what you will. From a Cal perspective we should be more happy for our highly rated Linebackers and not so worried about the lack of  “high-ranked” offensive linemen. Out of the five Cal offensive linemen who have made All-Pac 10 over the past five years, only one was rated higher than a “3 star”, Mike Gibson as a 4 star in 2006 and he was a JC transfer.

TP